International Geopolitical Advisory and Global Affairs

See my photos and favorite places

2010-06-24T17:19:00.001-07:00

I'm putting together a collection of photos where I've been. Check it out:

http://gowalla.com/jbeutler

- Jonathan

Pacific Rim Advisory International

2008-09-15T20:48:00.000-07:00

The international geopolitical firm, Pacific Rim Advisory International, is coming soon . . . please stay tuned.

The website will be launching in late September 2008:

www.pacificrimadvisory.com

The California-Spain Partnership Foundation

2008-07-15T00:22:00.000-07:00

The California-Spain Partnership Foundation has been founded in 2008 to strengthen the relationship between California and Spain through trade promotion, political exchange, and cultural interaction.

Coming in 2009: California-Spain Week!!!!

Direct flights begin between Taiwan and P.R.C.

2008-07-03T22:13:00.000-07:00

Direct commercial flights have begun between Mainland China and Taiwan after many decades of a ban on such commercial air service.

The implications are many, and this development is also an indication of some significant changes in regional geopolitics.

Upcoming coverage of Brazil's development

2008-07-03T14:18:00.000-07:00

The economic development of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is extremely important, and I hope to cover it better in this blog and beyond. Next month I will be in Asia again - this time for the Olympics. While in China, I'll be interviewing extensively and meeting with analysts, policy-makers, journalists, and other experts on the political economy of that country, as well as the other BRICs.

Barack and John on the world stage

2008-07-03T11:40:00.001-07:00

U.S. presidential candidates go abroad

I am enjoying the presidential race this year. I enjoy watching as Obama and McCain take the presidential campaign to the world. 2008's biggest story may not turn out to be the Olympics in China after all, and may in fact show how the world's attention revolves around what happens in America. The world is clearly more globalized and integrated than ever before. America must be flexible enough to follow the global trend of multipolar economic development, what Fareed Zakaria calls the "Rise of the Rest". With strengthening economies in many other countries, it becomes even more important for America to get on the world stage and show its leadership. The next president of the U.S. has a lot of work to do. Both Obama and McCain must realize this and are beginning to demonstrate that they do know this.

America's standing in the world is relatively weaker on all fronts now than it was, say, ten years ago. Because of this, Obama and McCain must demonstrate at home that they are strong on the international stage, but also must demonstrate to the world that America cares, America is willing to lead, and that America is changing and pursuing a constructive position as global leader.

Typically, candidates for the presidency focus their plans on traveling through Illinois, California, Florida, and Texas. This year, the two major candidates are expanding the scope of their campaign trail. John McCain's destinations include Colombia, Mexico, Europe, and the Middle East. Barack Obama will soon embark on a whirlwind tour through Western Europe and the Middle East. While these trips carry some risks for both candidates, there is great value in international travel.

Of course, there is no risk of losing media coverage while traveling abroad. The candidates will enjoy significant coverage through the traditional media and especially via the internet. This said, the candidates can be anywhere in the world and enjoy the limelight of the media's coverage of presidential politics.

The world is excited by the notion of the American presidency in the hands of someone like Obama. Around the globe, people are ready to welcome a President Obama. The Senator's upcoming trip abroad will allow those excited about him to see him up close and personal. Their excitement will be captured by American media, and will be shown to the American public. American public for the first time could be swayed by international public opinion. In other words, as Americans see the genuine celebratory excitement among Germans about Barack Obama's message of hope for the future, Americans will become more likely to be supportive. As the world goes, so goes America? Why has Obama chosen to visit England, Germany, and France? Barack Obama says that "France, Germany and the United Kingdom are key anchors of the transatlantic alliance . . . and I look forward to discussing how we can strengthen our partnership in the years to come." It may also have to do with the fact that Obama's popularity is through the roof in Germany -- at over 80%!

But the main question in my mind is why both candidates are not dedicating any of their foreign travel to Asia. Is traveling to Asia not sexy enough? Asia must be a fundamental priorirty of the next U.S. administration, and too much focus on Europe and the Middle East will cost America.

The Beijing Consensus

2008-07-03T11:26:00.001-07:00

Just some of my thoughts on development and China, as I have been studying the East Asia Model of economic development, marketization in Asia, and recent policy reforms in China.

China's Approach

As China has pursued reforms to promote capitalism, Beijing has resisted international financial institutions by seeking out a more gradual process of development and modernization. The Chinese government has continually had a strong presence in the growth of the Chinese economy. This concept of state-led market development essentially runs in opposition to the neoliberal school of thought that advocates free market transition. These stark differences adopted by China constitute the so-called Beijing Consensus. Many developing countries are interested in seeing the Chinese model work successfully because it has significant implications for the development of others. The Beijing Consensus may prove to be a beneficial example for other developing nations, despite its contradiction of the traditional neoliberal model that is so commonly implemented and supported.

Competing Development Models
Components of the Chinese development model have been collectively nicknamed the Beijing Consensus. The Beijing Consensus involves the notion that a strong state has an important role in driving a country’s economic development. The term was created to establish a contrast between said model and the so-called Washington Consensus. The Washington Consensus is an unofficial protocol of economic development that is sponsored by development institutions and organizations based in Washington such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. John Williamson first used the term “Washington Consensus” in 1989 when he described the characteristics of the economic development model subscribed to by the Washington-based international financial institutions. The Washington Consensus is characterized by its emphasis on fiscal discipline, economic transition, and development centered in the activity of the free market.

The Beijing Consensus, on the other hand, prescribes a strong state role in the economic development and market reforms of a country. Also involved in the concept of the Beijing Consensus is that there be an absence of democracy during economic development. Because China has sought to avoid extensive intervention from international institutions by relying on its own reforms, the Beijing Consensus also refers to the autonomous nature of development that intends to maintain a country’s character and culture of governance. Joshua Cooper Ramo argues that other developing countries look to the Beijing Consensus to learn how they can become more successfully integrated into the international system while maintaining a strong independence, both culturally and politically.

In addition to its simply being a good model for development, China actively encourages other developing countries to adopt its model of market development. China invests in establishing strong educational and aid programs to promote state-led market reforms and successful governance as it relates to economic development.

This is a big deal. Interesting, huh?

New Book on BRAZIL

2008-07-02T12:21:00.000-07:00

Attention!

New Book to be released in early 2009:

Green Giant: Brazil's Rise in the Twenty-First Century

by Jonathan Beutler

Airport bookstores are full of books on doing business in China, China's rise on the global stage, India's economy, etc. There is pretty much nothing on Brazil. This is the first book that collects information on all aspects of Brazil's development to provide a concise synopsis and guide to the politics, policy, economics, development, and people of Brazil.

coming blog entries and summer coverage

2008-07-02T02:16:00.000-07:00

I need to get begin posting new material here. This week I intend to begin posting more info and analysis, etc. Please feel free to leave comments.

Also, later this summer I will be attending the Olympic Games in Beijing, China.

Greetings from southern California!

why this blog?

2008-07-01T14:58:00.000-07:00

World affairs shape the way we live and do business. For example, political changes in East Asia can have a significant influence on traded goods and marketplaces in places like Las Vegas, Dubai, and Sydney. I invite you to bookmark this blog and take advantage of the information provided in this new blog. Please cite the author and blog when using information. Thank you for visiting!

new firm

2008-02-18T00:11:00.001-08:00

Soon we will be launching a new firm. The Los Angeles-based firm will provide international political risk and geopolitical advisory, offering a variety of analyses and reports. Also, some government relations and public affairs work will be done.

The name of the firm has yet to be determined.

It's going to be great!

Tables are turning on the United States

2008-01-07T22:16:00.000-08:00

The U.S. is still the world's only global hyperpower, with no other true superpower to counter or balance America's worldwide influence. Will it always be? Maybe. Are other countries/entities growing to assume the role of the non-American superpower? Of course. Today there are already very important regional powerhouses: Russia in Eurasia, China in Asia, and Brazil in South America -- all of which wield their power throughout their neighborhood.

This article claims that 2008 will be an extremely important year for CHINA. The author talks about China's becoming a superpower.

These regional powers have lately . . ..

New International Political Risk and Research firm

2008-01-07T22:15:00.000-08:00

What is a good name for a new political risk analysis firm, with a strong international focus?

Taiwan in 2008

2008-01-07T21:58:00.000-08:00

So in my 2008 geopolitical briefing I predicted that Taiwan would be a major concern this year, and would place further strains on U.S.-China and general East Asian affairs. I stand by my conviction that Taiwan is going to play an increasingly important role when it comes to Sino-American relations, however I am reconsidering my position that 2008 will be a year of major tension. After researching a bit more and discussing this with Taiwanese friends, I think that the cross strait situation will stabilize somewhat, and not cause major problems on the international stage. In 2008, Beijing is super occupied with the Summer Olympics there. If we suppose for a moment that Taiwan really does apply to the WHO and the UN as an independent active member, and this angers China to the point that the big and powerful P.R.C. launches military aggression against the small island nation, who would show up at the Olympics? Any Chinese military action against Taiwan would most certainly spark global protest and boycott of China's beloved Olympics. The Olympics in 2008 are way too important to the Chinese -- they won't make a move against Taiwan. The American administration has been discussing the whole situation with Taipei and Beijing, the latter growing less and less passionate about the Taiwan unification issue. Anyway, even if the Olympics were not in Beijing this year, I believe that any "independence" action on the part of Taiwan would not spark bellicose behavior by the P.R.C.

May 2008 be a year of peace in Asia and everywhere.

Lack of regional leadership in Latin America . . . not for long?

2008-01-03T01:00:00.001-08:00

Having given such little attention to Latin America, the Bush administration has contributed to the creation of a regional leadership vacuum. But this vacuum may soon be filled by moderate political leaders who seek for regional unity, prosperity, investment, and solutions.

President Lula of Brazil is one of these moderates.

Hugo Chávez has long sought to captivate a transcontinental audience. His most recent attempts to drastically alter his own country failed miserably for all the world to see. The international community observed that day as Hugo Chávez was rejected at the polls, causing him to lose precious momentum. He failed to capture regional leadership, and take the continent under his wings in a new direction. This is likely a very positive thing for the region.

Now other leaders from other South American countries must seize the opportunity to lead and influence the politics there. Michelle Bachelet in Chile, Cristina de Kirchner in Argentina, and Lula in Brazil, there is new hope for further regional stability and prosperity.

Although Chávez will continue to aggressively advocate his "21st century socialism" throughout the region, other countries are moving toward improving relations with North American allies, strengthening trade, fortifying a regional economy, and solving energy problems.

There is hope on the horizon in Latin America. New leaders are looking to fight corruption, poverty, pollution, and debt in new and innovative ways.

The recent establishment of a regional development bank indicates a new resolution to encourage self-sufficiency. The countries of South America have arrived to the conclusion that in order to compete in the new global economy, they must be united. In order to engage in the world's trade markets, a united South America offers more opportunities to gain, grow, and renew.

Major worries surround chaotic situation in Kenya

2008-01-03T00:58:00.001-08:00

New Geopolitical Briefing for 2008 - Top political risks

2007-12-31T18:13:00.000-08:00

For more information on the Top Political Risks and Hotspots of 2008, please read this report I recently wrote. It is available at this link.

Read it and let me know what you think.

To download it, follow the link above, then click to download the pdf.

Thank you!

Kenyan election crisis?

2007-12-30T23:18:00.000-08:00

Kenya's presidential elections this week were expected to flow fairly smoothly, and could have set a great example for the rest of Africa. But there may be some questionable issues surrounding the election of the incumbent President. Opposition leaders are criticizing the results.

New Report on 2008 Geopolitical Expectations

2007-12-21T12:58:00.000-08:00

Coming soon online is my new report on global political risks for 2008, which includes expectations of regional instability, and global prosperity. I'll address China, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, Spain, the Middle East, Pakistan, Africa, Russia, and more. Please return later this week to download your copy of the report.
Thank you/Tak so mycket,

New Regional Development Bank in Latin America

2007-12-09T23:18:00.001-08:00

Please read this article about new developments in Latin America. A new bank has been established by leaders of 7 countries in South America. More to follow....

Lisbon Summit of European & African heads of government

2007-12-07T23:20:00.000-08:00

Sorry for not having been posting in the last few days.

The EU-Africa Summit is under way in Lisbon, Portugal. Lots to talk about on that front. EU heads debate on African trade policy, Mugabe, etc. African leaders want to address relief for AIDS, political corruption, debt relief, development projects, sustainability issues.

As many of the member states of the European Union are former colonizers of many African countries, there are many important and historic relationships between the Western Europeans and Africans.

Is Brazil the true America?

2007-12-04T23:46:00.000-08:00

BBC News is reporting that the first map in which the term "America" appears shows the label over modern-day Brazil, and not over North America. Interesting.....

It is interesting that often in Iberia, and throughout Central and South America people always like to correct Americans. I'm often rebuked when I say I am American. They tell me that I am either "norteamericano" or "estadounidense" . . . or "yanqui".

Russia's election results & implications

2007-12-03T20:12:00.000-08:00

In Moscow today Vladimir Putin & Co. Are celebrating their ecpected victory, all while electoral observers in the West and elsewhere are lamenting the anti-democratic abuses discovered throughout Russia. Most expect Putin do obey the law, however, by stepping down as president. But insiders and experts insist that he intends a power grab in the spring, assuming thecrile of prime minister- a head of state. This is where foreigners are particularly concerned. Many see this development as a threat to stability in Eurasia and the Middle East. The Russian administration has strengthened numerous friendships with regimes there. I see the rise if power of Russia under Putin a potential trigger to future conflicts of much greater scale. In fact, the world had witnessed a surge in discourse that smacks of Cold War "diplomacy". Investing in Russia carries risks right now.

Great News for Democracy in Hong Kong

2007-12-02T15:53:00.000-08:00

Ms. Anson Chan has defeated the Beijing-backed candidate in a decisive election held in Hong Kong (S.A.R.).

With some concerning news about elections in other countries, this development in Hong Kong means stronger democracy and even more stability in an already well-developed and stable city-state.

Please read this article from BBC News: Anson Chan wins in Hong Kong.

More to come . . .

Barack Obama's meeting with Mike Bloomberg, etc.

2007-12-02T15:40:00.000-08:00

Clinton? Giuliani? Obama? Romney? McCain? Edwards? Huckabee?
Now we must ask if Bloomberg runs.... and wins?

Why did Obama meet with Bloomberg? What was discussed over their breakfast in New York City?

Let's take a look at what influence the U.S. presidential race will have on world affairs and global stability.

Election Results for Putin and Chávez

2007-12-02T15:38:00.001-08:00

Polls are closing and ballots being counted in Venezuela and Russia.

In RUSSIA: Putin's party has won in the country's general election.

In VENZUELA: Hugo Chávez has NOT been successful.

More commentary to come as news develops....

Election Drama!

2007-12-02T09:40:00.001-08:00

The elections this weekend in Russia and Venezuela are very important to regional stability, and also to global stability. Both elections will have significant consequences of global magnitude. The results may dramatically shape the political landscape in Latin America, Eurasia, Europe, and even the United States of America.

In both countries, political opponents are being oppressed and shut out of political dialogue.

Attention: major concerns of social and economic instability in both Russia and Venezuela.

I will have a much more comprehensive analysis of the situations in both places shortly on this blog.

Day of turmoil in Venezuela

2007-12-02T09:34:00.000-08:00

I am paying special attention to today's election in Venezuela. Major constitutional reforms are being voted on, including the possibility of Pres. Chávez remaining in power for life. Tension is high as Hugo threatens to cut off oil supplies to the U.S. (However, there is a little less concern now that Brazil has discovered massive oil despoits.)
Amidst the volatility today, shots have been fired near former military commander and Chávez opponent, Raúl Baduel, in Caracas.

Mr. Baduel has written an op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled "Why I Parted Ways With Chávez."

ETA, Venezuela, Russia, Turkey - big news day

2007-12-01T18:27:00.001-08:00

Today, a lot has been going on around the world.

ETA has been blamed for killing a Spanish law enforcement agent in southern France. ETA has been responsible for the assassinations of over 700 judicial and political officials in Spain and France (many more in the former than in the latter) since the late 1970s. Both Spain and France have resolute officials dedicated with dealing with the problem of Basque separatist terrorism. Investing in Spain and France is at almost no risk because of ETA terrorism. ETA generally targets political opponents' cars and offices. Spain and France are economically and politically stable countries. Spain is experiencing one of the highest growth rates in the European Union. I argue that Spain is actually the engine of Western Europe's growth.
Venezuela is at a politically volatile point. Venezuela is becoming increasingly unstable , as President Chávez is proposing a series of shocking constitutional reforms, including one to alter the Constitution and allow him to rule the country permanently. This poses serious dangers to international investors and organizations. The markets in Venezuela are completely unstable right now as these political disruptions are occurring. Massive demonstrations of students and others have been conducted throughout the country in opposition to Mr Chávez and his proposed reforms.
Russia began its nationwide general elections. Many parties and observers, both domestic and international, are concerned that the elections are biased. These concerns lead to accusations that this election is the least democratic in Russia since the fall of the USSR. I am very concerned about the status of democracy in Russia. Gary Kasparov, world famous chess champion and presidential candidate, was arrested earlier this weekend. This certainly increases concern about President Putin's administration's handling of political elections in the country. Additionally, Putin has signed into law the official withdrawal of his country from the COnventional Armed Forces in Europe treaty. Western, primarily American and British, assets and interests in Russia may be threatened by the current risks there.
Turkey has launched a series of offensive attacks against PKK rebels across the border in Iraq, and may stir tensions in the region, with U.S. forces, Iraqi forces, Iran, and others. This only adds fuel to the fires of volatility in the region.

21st Century Socialism in Latin America

2007-11-30T23:48:00.000-08:00

Political Risk Analysis firms, etc.

2007-11-30T22:15:00.000-08:00

Political risk analysis is becoming increasingly valuable and important to multinational organizations. For more information, please following the following links to the sites of several important political risk analysis firms/analysts:

The Eurasia Group | Riskline | Sam Logan | PRS Group | iJet | Control Risks | Stratfor

These are only some of the many such firms in the world!

The Rise of the Arab Gulf States

2007-11-30T21:50:00.002-08:00

Could the Arab Gulf States be the new haven for innovation and prosperity? There is so much going on there, so much money, so much business.

Dubai in the United Arab Emirates has become one of the world's most cosmopolitan and international cities. It is also home to some of the most ambitious architectural project, including what will be the world's tallest building.

Dubai: Jumeirah, Burk al Arab, the World, financial markets, etc.
Abu Dhabi: arts & culture
Doha
Manama

China's actual size questioned

2007-11-30T20:18:00.000-08:00

This year I have traveled to Beijing 5 times, as well as to Guangzhou and Shanghai. All I hear lately is how huge, powerful and strong China is. I have been wondering if all this is accurate, or exaggerated! So this week's Economist features an interesting article that addresses just this. Could China's GDP be exaggerated? I recommend reading their article, linked here.

Caracas + Tehran + Pyongyang (+ Moscow) = more than just ankle-biters

2007-11-30T15:21:00.000-08:00

Most people know that the United States faces significant threats ranging from nuclear power in Iran, a strengthening dictatorship in Venezuela, a blowhard regime in North Korea, and an already authoritarian administration in Russia.

An otherwise strange alliance has developed among leaders of Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. The relationship between Hugo Chávez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has shown that because anti-Americanism is growing worldwide, small segments can unite and prove to pose some challenge to the United States and its political power.

Venezuela is one of the most important concerns facing the Western hemisphere. This article cites recent research showing that Venezuela ranks among the most unstable countries.
I argue that Venezuela is the most dangerous and unstable nation in the Western hemisphere.

Blessed art thou, Brasil!

2007-11-30T12:44:00.001-08:00

Surpresa! This may just be the year of Brazil! After all, it is one of the BRICs! But what sets Brazil apart from the others in that category--Russia, India, and China? Well, Brazil is a democratic country--the second largest democracy in the Western hemisphere! Brazil is a naturally rich country. The country's Amazon River and its surrounding rainforests are some of the world's most important natural resources.

Of course, Brazil is famous for its pursuit of energy independence with the inspiring development of biofuels. This interesting video is rather insightful.

Anyway, I would like to point out some important things going on in Brazil.

What big developments we've seen recently:

Reductions in corruption

Biofuels

Huge oil deposits discovered off the Brazilian coast by Petrobras

This recent discovery makes Brazil an even more important player in the area of energy diplomacy. Although the discovered deposit is not as large as some of those in OPEC countries, it demonstrates a renewed sense of Brazilian authority in the world energy community. For several decades, Brazil has been working toward energy independence as it has developed the world's most extensive ethanol industry. At a typical gas station in Brazil, one will find a much wider array of fuel options than pretty much anywhere in the world.

SP stock exchange is the fastest growing in the world.

According to many numbers, the São Paulo stock market, although relatively small, has grown unlike any other market in the world. The growth rate has been astounding.

I am very optimistic about Brazil and its future.

--
This blog entry sent from my iPhone.

Jonathan Beutler

LIVE from Los Angeles, California!

2007-11-30T12:25:00.001-08:00

Welcome to the blog of International Geopolitical Advisory! I hope that this blog will provide important insights and interesting information regarding major world affairs and issues of international importance.

I am located in the beautiful coastal metropolis of Los Angeles, California, U.S.A. Aside from being a huge city with lots going on, Los Angeles is an important and strategic location, with close ties to the rest of the world, especially to Latin American and Asia. Los Angeles is a city of diversity, creativity, innovation, and prosperity. Los Angeles is arguably the most diverse city in the world and boasts the largest Korean, Persian, Armenian, Mexican, and Filipinio communities outside their respective countries and regions. Of course, Los Angeles has one of the busiest international airports in the world, and is also the planet's entertainment capital.

Today I am launching this blog to publicize issues and developments of global importance. I hope that readers will enjoy the information and return to this site.

Please feel free to comment on my entries, and also contact me directly.

Thank you. Gracias. Danke. Obrigado. Merci.

Jonathan Beutler, political risk analysis, global geopolitical research

2007-11-29T20:51:00.000-08:00